Now that it’s 2021, let’s take a look back at 2020 and poke some light fun at the winners and losers of the Bitcoin predictions for an utterly unpredictable year.
As the briefest of recaps: Bitcoin started 2020 trading at $7,150 and hit an all-time high of $23,000 in December. (Check out our article on Bitcoin’s wild 2020 ride for the full recap.) In these first few days of 2021, Bitcoin is hovering just under $40,000. Let’s dive in and see how 2020 predictions panned out.
There were High Predictions
“The predicted market value for Bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1[trillion], which translates [to] a bitcoin price of $55,000.”
–Plan B, May 2019
Verdict: Too fast and too furious a prediction. That said, in May 2019, none of us had any idea what was in store for us in 2020.
“Initial good resistance is met at $10,500 – $10,820. If that gives way, the next good level is $13,850, and above there, $19,511. If $19,511 was to give way, well, the chart speaks for itself.” Citibank insists that BTC can reach as high $120,846.80.
Alistair Milne, British Investor and Entrepreneur, Twitter July 7, 2020 citing @Citibank FX Wire that morning.
Verdict. While too high for 2020, Citibank is now being quoted as saying Bitcoin will reach $318,000 by the end of 2021.
And the Low Predictions
“Institutional involvement will bring less volatility on BTC, and so any price increase in BTC will be much slower than we are seeing at the moment [in March 2020]. We expect to see BTC-USD trading anywhere from 10,000 to 13,000 [in Q3 and Q4], but only if the institutional players get involved.”
–Yahoo! Finance, March 2020
Verdict: Low balled it–by a lot. But they nailed the part about institutional players changing the game. Square, PayPal and others did just that toward the end of 2020 with their high-profile investments in Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin will approach the record high of about $20,000 this year, in our view, if it follows 2016’s trend.”
–Bloomberg Crypto Outlook, June 2020
Verdict: Impressively close prediction, though they hedged by saying Bitcoin would “approach” record highs. It surpassed it.
“Our view for the balance of 2020 is still high volatility with a year end of around $7,000 [per Bitcoin] with a drive higher to new highs in 2021.”
-Gavin Smith, chief executive of Bitcoin and crypto consortium Panxora, Forbes, July 2020
Verdict: Womp womp.
…And the Prediction that was Just Right
“$BTC is coiling. It will take out 10k soon. All the tragic turmoil in the USA adds to the narrative. Budgets are going one way and it’s the opposite of balanced. When 10k goes it will move fast. Get on the train.”
Michael Novogratz, CEO and founder of Galaxy Digital, an investment management company focusing on digital assets. Twitter, June 1, 2020
Verdict: His crystal ball was on point for Q4, 2020.